BTC Falls Below $75K After Powell's Final FOMC Press Conference

Bitcoin does not like Jerome Powell. That's not a hot take — it's basically a data point at this point.

After Powell's April 29 FOMC press conference, BTC dropped from roughly $77,000 to $74,914. Another hawkish hold, another red candle, another wave of long liquidations. If you've been watching these events for the past two years, none of this should surprise you. But the specifics are worth breaking down, because this one had a few elements that made it more notable than a routine pullback.

What Powell Actually Said

The Fed held rates at 3.50–3.75% for the third straight meeting. No cut, no hike — just another pause with carefully worded concern.

Powell's tone was cautious. He named tariffs explicitly as one of several supply shocks creating uncertainty for the economic outlook, alongside the pandemic, the invasion of Ukraine, and the Iran conflict. The Fed is in no rush to move. Powell was clear that no one on the FOMC is calling for a hike, but cut expectations got pushed back hard — June cut odds sit at just 4.5% on CME FedWatch, with July barely better at 10%.

He also confirmed he'll stay on as a Fed Governor after May 15, when his term as Chair ends. Powell indicated the decision was driven by concerns about the Fed's institutional independence during a politically contentious period. That piece got less attention in the market than it probably deserved.

The headline: no cut, hawkish framing, no clear timeline. Markets heard it the same way they've heard every other version of this message and did what they always do.

The Numbers

Price action:

BTC pre-speech: ~$77,000
BTC post-speech low: $74,914
Drop: approximately 2.7% in hours

Liquidations (24 hours following the press conference):

Total: $534.86M
Long liquidations: $372.36M (70% of the total)
Traders liquidated: 122,173

That $372M in long liquidations tells you what the positioning looked like going into the event. A lot of traders were long into a known macro risk event, got caught, and the cascade did the rest.

ETF flows:

Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded net outflows on April 29, snapping a 9-day inflow streak that had brought in over $2.1B
Outflow figures vary by source: estimates range from $89M to $263M depending on the data provider

That streak was real momentum. Institutional buyers had been consistent for nearly two weeks straight. One press conference from Powell was enough to reverse that, at least for a day.

This Keeps Happening

This isn't a one-off. 8 of the last 9 FOMC meetings have produced downside for BTC within 48 hours of Powell's press conference. That's not a coincidence — it's a pattern.

The dynamic is straightforward: Bitcoin has increasingly traded as a macro risk asset. When the Fed signals it's not cutting, risk appetite compresses. Leveraged longs get hit first because they're most sensitive to sentiment shifts. Then ETF flows slow or reverse as institutional momentum traders respond to the same signal.

The pattern doesn't mean BTC is broken. It means the market is pricing in macro conditions in real time, and those conditions aren't favorable when the Fed is holding or leaning hawkish.

What Comes Next

A few things to watch:

Tariff clarity is probably the bigger driver than the Fed in the near term. Powell himself pointed to tariff uncertainty as a reason for the cautious stance. If that uncertainty resolves — one way or another — it changes the calculus.

ETF flows are a more useful real-time signal than price alone right now. One day of outflows after 9 days of inflows is not a trend reversal. But if outflows continue into early May, that's a more meaningful signal about where institutional conviction actually sits.

Rate cut expectations got repriced hard. June cut odds are at 4.5% on CME FedWatch, July at 10%. The window is later than most were pricing before this meeting. Watch inflation data over the next few months — if it keeps running hot (March CPI already came in at 3.3%), the already-thin cut odds shrink further.

The long thesis hasn't changed. But in the short term, BTC is going to keep reacting to macro events exactly like it did on April 29 — and traders who keep going long into FOMC press conferences without accounting for that pattern are going to keep getting squeezed.

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